Swing Trade, A look at the Technicals

Wow! did you see the chart of the swissie today? the market was moving with amazing speed. For about a week now im been trying to focus my trading on more long term charts, since day trading really hasnt been working out for me. It seems that predicting moves in the market is far more easier on a long term basis. For example the swissies big move today, how could you have seen it coming? Simply by looking at a weekly chart!

I didnt trade today becuase I don't like to short in a long market. If you ask me thats the golden rule that will save you alot of money. ADX on the daily chart also pointed to a trend reversal. Ive just started to use ADX and it works like a charm for long term trading trends!

The Week Ahead, Personal Notes

The calender for next week is empty except for non-farm payrolls! This is my favorite event to trade, just because the fact that every trader in the world is watching his or her screen at the same time. As much as i enjoy non-farm payrolls i am also very cautious with my trades. I always look at the revisions from last months non-farm payrolls, just so there arent any surprises while im trading. Thats basically what this week is going to be all about. The calender is empty except for friday.

The Week Ahead, Personal Notes

Next week is looking a little bare. The biggest news that is being released is mostly German indicators. I dont like to trade the markets when there isnt much volatility. US news releases are what i like to trade so im probably going to suck it up and not trade this week. Hey there is always another week to trade right? I'd rather perserve my captial than have to make it back the next week.

The New Season, Personal Notes

School is almost out for the year and that means only one thing, more time to trade! Juggling school and work leaves no time to trade, but that will be different during the summer months. After this week and next week are over i will probably start posting a lot more trades that ive made. I'm eager to trade the Japanese and Australian sessions but its not my style, i only trade during the US and London sessions. I'm not going to be able to make a trade for about 2 weeks, its going to take some discipline but thats just another skill that i should have mastered in forex trading.

Sleepy Trader, A look at the Technicals

The first thing i do before i trade is a take a look at currency correlation. What ever the USD/CHF and USD/JPY are doing should be the inverse of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Currency correlation looked alright so i started to plan my trade. My layout for a chart is as follows:
200(EMA), 55(EMA), 21(EMA),5(EMA),8(EMA)
MACD(12,26,9)
Slow Stochastics(14,3)

First i measured the 261.8% fib extension of the news candle, 8:30(NYT). I knew that i would enter my trade at the break of the 200EMA on the 15 min and shoot for that 261.8% extension. I had some things to do later in the day and didn't want to leave my trade open so i exited a little early when i was up about 10 pips on the euro and the gbp. Hah the three arrows right around my entry point was when i got trigger happy, entered my trade and exited it a couple seconds later...whoops :-o Ended the day up about 28 pips on the GBP/USD and EUR/USD :-) we'll see what the next trade brings.

Sleepy Trader, A look at the Fundamentals

The Friday May 11, 2007 economic calender was jammed packed and i slept in! I missed the actual announcement of all the indicators but still caught some of the moves. Gotta love forex right? Always giving you a second chance to get in a good trade. Around 9:30(NYT) i hopped out of bed and fired up the charts and calender to see what was going down in the markets. This is what i saw:

12:30	United States	Producer Price Index (MoM) (Apr)	!!!	0.7%	0.6%	1.0%
	12:30	United States	Producer Price Index (YoY) (Apr)	!!!	3.2%	3.1%	3.2%
	12:30	United States	Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Apr)	!!!	0%	0.2%	0%
	12:30	United States	Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Apr)	!!!	1.5%	1.8%	1.7%
	12:30	United States	Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)	!!!	-0.2%	0.4%	1.0%

(The first number is the actual, middle one is the forecast and the last is the previous)

The first thing i look at when checking the calenders is which announcement is farthest away from what analysts are forecasting. Retail sales caught my eyes, -0.2% vs 0.4%. So my bias for the day was down for the us dollar.

The Absent Minded Investor

The Absent Minded Investor is a tale of my dream. Everyone i have talked to has said i cant trade Forex and be successful. They think the odds are against me and its just "gambling". The only reason anyone would say this is because they know they cant trade and make money. I'm willing to put time into my trading and become successful. I hope any new trader to Forex knows that when it comes to the markets they are absent minded. It takes time to recognize patterns and predict reactions to fundamental announcements. The only cure for the absent mind is experience. My posts will outline most of my trades and exactly what i was thinking when i was making the trade. Learn from my mistakes and yours!